Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 25 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

25 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 35¢ · $106K held · ends Nov 4

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$106.3K

Combined PnL

$6.9K

Smart Money Entry

30¢ → 35¢

+17% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 36 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares40,251

Combined PnL$-1.8K

No25 traders

Total Value$64.4K

Total Shares183,746

Combined PnL+$8.7K

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 82% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pantomimeARB<$100	Noavg 19¢	$9.6K	$14.6K	+$5.0K	52% 1287-1198 (2485)
└ No leg	Noavg 19¢	$6.2K	$11.4K	+$5.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$250
Rafifa	Yesavg 67.5¢	$11.4K	$10.8K	-$339.64	— 2-4 (6)
WordleAddictCTR	Noavg 35¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$150	61% 941-614 (1555)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 70.7¢	$10.2K	$9.6K	-$666.64	38% 20-32 (52)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Noavg 33.7¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$271.19	35% 35-64 (99)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 24.6¢	$4.4K	$6.3K	+$1.9K	36% 397-691 (1088)
BigRabbitCTR	Noavg 18.3¢	$2.8K	$5.3K	+$2.4K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 34¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$220.68	47% 474-534 (1008)
PO poptreeCTR	Noavg 32¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$325	70% 390-171 (561)
PI piepedCTR	Noavg 30.7¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$395.84	42% 71-100 (171)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$109.93	36% 190-333 (523)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 36.8¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$121.64	56% 836-644 (1480)
twinnaCTR	Noavg 20¢	$1.5K	$2.6K	+$1.1K	50% 92-93 (185)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 78.4¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$540	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
WA wan123CTR	Noavg 20¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$999.52	39% 196-304 (500)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 26.3¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$375.24	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Noavg 30¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$238.32	— 7-3 (10)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 65¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$13.25	58% 705-521 (1226)
mrworldwideCTR	Noavg 35¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$0	69% 804-359 (1163)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$197.99	94% 442-28 (470)
aenews2CTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$691.53	$1.1K	+$387.49	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
Kickstand7CTR	Noavg 30¢	$767.1	$894.95	+$127.85	61% 496-318 (814)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 24.8¢	$710	$700	-$10	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Noavg 36¢	$720	$700	-$20	58% 182-132 (314)
wagwanshawtyCTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$689.99	$699.99	+$0.01	— 10-5 (15)

pantomimeARB<$100

Invested

$9,622.89

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

52%

1287-1198 (2485)

Both legs:

Invested

$11,380

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$339.64

Record

—

2-4 (6)

WordleAddictCTR

Invested

$10,499.98

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$150

Record

61%

941-614 (1555)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$10,247.13

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$666.64

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

dromedaryyCTR

Invested

$7,266.61

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$271.19

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

troimCTR

Invested

$4,437.02

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

BigRabbitCTR

Invested

$2,750

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$5,002.05

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$220.68

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

poptreeCTR

Invested

$4,160

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$325

Record

70%

390-171 (561)

piepedCTR

Invested

$3,161.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$395.84

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$3,559.99

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$109.93

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$3,426.96

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$121.64

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

twinnaCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$3,100

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$540

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

wan123CTR

Invested

$1,332.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$999.52

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$1,788.15

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$375.24

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0x498d2...CTR

Invested

$1,588.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$238.32

Record

—

7-3 (10)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$1,722.71

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$13.25

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

mrworldwideCTR

Invested

$1,307.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,290.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$197.99

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

aenews2CTR

Invested

$691.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$387.49

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Kickstand7CTR

Invested

$767.1

Value

$894.95

PnL

+$127.85

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$710

Value

$700

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Invested

$720

Value

$700

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

wagwanshawtyCTR

Invested

$689.99

Value

$699.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

25 of 36 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 28%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 28% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 82% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.9%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$170.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

270.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.