Consensus PnL $4.8K · win rate 52% (302–284, n=586) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$4.8K
Record
302W / 284L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 586 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1630
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
40
Markets
600
Volume
$510.0K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 47¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
Specialties
329 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+36 pts
side won 91% of 286 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +36%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 100% of 24 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +46%
- NBA
+51 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 85% of 79)
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 95% of 221)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 96% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.