Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 12 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $265K held · ends Nov 29

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$265.3K

Combined PnL

$17.7K

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 46.5¢

+12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$194.9K

Total Shares417,972

Combined PnL+$21.0K

No8 traders

Total Value$70.5K

Total Shares130,982

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 61% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Yesavg 43.6¢	$135.5K	$144.6K	+$9.1K	50% 7330-7454 (14784)
NI niceqqqqq3	Noavg 54.5¢	$21.8K	$21.6K	-$399.32	42% 36-50 (86)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Noavg 55.5¢	$20.8K	$20.1K	-$750	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
LI LinkE5CTR	Yesavg 34¢	$10.7K	$14.8K	+$3.9K	47% 711-790 (1501)
norrisfan	Noavg 55.9¢	$13.1K	$12.7K	-$556.67	42% 480-668 (1148)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$7.4K	$10.6K	+$3.1K	57% 1092-820 (1912)
FR freeman123CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$9.9K	$9.9K	-$105	82% 553-125 (678)
AM am100CTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$4.1K	$5.9K	+$1.7K	55% 1161-941 (2102)
Reformedx	Noavg 61.9¢	$6.2K	$5.4K	-$839.95	52% 839-788 (1627)
Nooserac	Noavg 57¢	$5.7K	$5.3K	-$347.65	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0xheavy888	Noavg 56¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$204.7	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
DA dancingmonkey1CTR	Yesavg 34.6¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$715.33	54% 1253-1088 (2341)
8D 8DDDCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$175	53% 28-25 (53)
RU Ruler11CTR	Yesavg 39.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$222.24	51% 301-289 (590)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 40.1¢	$158.02	$1.1K	+$872.26	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$127.06	$1.1K	+$993.16	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 67¢	$1.1K	$867.3	-$216.82	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$33	$281.99	+$248.99	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
WarewaPain	Noavg 56¢	$104.97	$101.22	-$4.69	43% 466-611 (1077)
JO JoofoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2	$2.14	+$0.11	63% 77-46 (123)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Yes

Invested

$135,450.28

Value

$144.6K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

50%

7330-7454 (14784)

niceqqqqq3

Invested

$21,799.92

Value

$21.6K

PnL

-$399.32

Record

42%

36-50 (86)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Invested

$20,812.52

Value

$20.1K

PnL

-$750

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

LinkE5CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,686.87

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

47%

711-790 (1501)

norrisfan

Invested

$13,129.2

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$556.67

Record

42%

480-668 (1148)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,417.06

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

57%

1092-820 (1912)

freeman123CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,870

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$105

Record

82%

553-125 (678)

am100CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,086.92

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

55%

1161-941 (2102)

Reformedx

Invested

$6,189.96

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$839.95

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

Nooserac

Invested

$5,697.65

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$347.65

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0xheavy888

Invested

$4,585.37

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$204.7

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

dancingmonkey1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,088.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$715.33

Record

54%

1253-1088 (2341)

8DDDCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,149.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$175

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

Ruler11CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,214.51

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$222.24

Record

51%

301-289 (590)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.02

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$872.26

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$993.16

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

sbimbg

Invested

$1,076.1

Value

$867.3

PnL

-$216.82

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$33

Value

$281.99

PnL

+$248.99

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

WarewaPain

Invested

$104.97

Value

$101.22

PnL

-$4.69

Record

43%

466-611 (1077)

JoofoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.11

Record

63%

77-46 (123)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 20 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 61% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.