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08
Consensus PnL -$90K · win rate 35% (85–155, n=240) · PM monthly #390 · holds 3 consensus positions
0x08caa556...a0e97895Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-90.3K
Record
85W / 155L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 240 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2154
Source
PM monthly #390
Trades
53
Markets
279
Volume
$579.2K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?No $4.4K · now 1¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $6 · now 11¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $5 · now 9¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
55 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 98% of 46 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 100% of 25)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 95% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.