Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 91¢ · $82K held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$81.7K

Combined PnL

$28.4K

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 90.6¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$48.9K

Total Shares523,615

Combined PnL+$29.0K

No5 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares36,180

Combined PnL-$592.33

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$15.6K	$41.5K	+$26.0K	43% 561-738 (1299)
SI Siddhartha1	Noavg 93.3¢	$30.0K	$27.2K	-$794.94	51% 59-57 (116)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$2.9K	$4.7K	+$1.7K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
Nooserac	Noavg 87¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$182.5	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$933.11	$1.4K	+$541.96	66% 579-299 (878)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.7¢	$496.48	$1.3K	+$805.7	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 87¢	$870	$831.44	+$33.48	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 96.1¢	$204.77	$193.08	-$11.69	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47.14	$45.46	-$1.68	60% 1348-884 (2232)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$34.27	$26.67	-$7.6	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
SA SapporoAsahiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.5	$4.65	-$0.83	36% 94-170 (264)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$15,569.65

Value

$41.5K

PnL

+$26.0K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

Siddhartha1

Invested

$30,010.81

Value

$27.2K

PnL

-$794.94

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,941.11

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Nooserac

Invested

$4,350

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$182.5

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Yes

Invested

$933.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$541.96

Record

66%

579-299 (878)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$496.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$805.7

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$870

Value

$831.44

PnL

+$33.48

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$204.77

Value

$193.08

PnL

-$11.69

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704<$100

Invested

$47.14

Value

$45.46

PnL

-$1.68

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.27

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$7.6

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

SapporoAsahiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.83

Record

36%

94-170 (264)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.