Consensus PnL $611K · win rate 58% (831–614, n=1445) · PM monthly #546 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$611.1K
Record
831W / 614L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 1445 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1280
Source
PM monthly #546
Trades
992
Markets
1,662
Volume
$18.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $11K · now 81¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (50% of 39)
Specialties
1,111 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+38 pts
side won 91% of 67 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +33%
- Esports
+29 pts
side won 83% of 1032 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 63% of 60)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 76% of 387)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 88% of 480)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 95% of 184)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.