Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Yandex, while the market favors Team Spirit (76%). 17 of 31 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe Playoffs

17 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Team Yandex (55%) · Team Yandex at 25¢ · $109K held · ends Nov 1

Team Yandex25¢Team Spirit75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Yandex

Consensus Traders

Team Yandex 55%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$108.9K

Combined PnL

$17.8K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 24.5¢

-62% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Yandex at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

17 of 31 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Team Spirit 76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex25%

Team Spirit76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit14 traders

Total Value$68.1K

Total Shares99,291

Combined PnL+$26.2K

Team Yandex17 traders

Total Value$27.8K

Total Shares96,503

Combined PnL$-8.4K

Team Spirit — 45%Team Yandex — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpTeam Yandex 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 58% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 50% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Spiritavg 33.6¢	$12.0K	$24.4K	+$12.4K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Team Spiritavg 35¢	$10.1K	$19.8K	+$9.7K	58% 907-653 (1560)
SI SineNooneEI	Team Spiritavg 33¢	$5.1K	$10.7K	+$2.4K	55% 923-754 (1677)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 56.8¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$71.58	53% 532-465 (997)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 56.8¢	$5.2K	$6.2K	+$983.11
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 43.3¢	$3.6K	$2.7K	-$911.54
TO tony1919CTR	Team Yandexavg 68.4¢	$9.0K	$8.2K	-$846.44	79% 42-11 (53)
MA madkkee	Team Spiritavg 56¢	$4.3K	$5.3K	-$692.99	66% 1047-533 (1580)
FR fraagenCTR	Team Yandexavg 66¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$80	45% 61-76 (137)
StudyPrediction	Team Spiritavg 43.5¢	$2.3K	$3.7K	+$1.3K	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
VI vibing123CTR	Team Yandexavg 66¢	$6.6K	$3.1K	$-3.5K	52% 1575-1457 (3032)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Team Yandexavg 43.8¢	$3.9K	$3.0K	+$199.93	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 48.9¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$550.21
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 43.8¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$350.29
TR TrippleEXCTR	Team Yandexavg 67¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$150	58% 300-216 (516)
ChopperyyyCTR	Team Yandexavg 67¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$731.34	64% 381-217 (598)
DR drunkdegenerateCTR	Team Yandexavg 66¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$30	54% 198-167 (365)
BA BabooouCTR	Team Yandexavg 65¢	$3.9K	$1.7K	$-2.2K	52% 214-200 (414)
TG tghj20CTR	Team Yandexavg 54.1¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$127.77	49% 63-65 (128)
BI BillBenter2026	Team Spiritavg 36.7¢	$498.95	$932.24	+$433.29	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
LO lonmi2511	Team Spiritavg 55.7¢	$630.97	$776.32	+$145.35	62% 1191-725 (1916)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Team Spiritavg 45.8¢	$562.18	$747.52	+$185.35	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
└ Team Spirit leg	Team Spiritavg 45.8¢	$341.12	$494.87	+$153.75
└ Team Yandex leg	Team Yandexavg 29.3¢	$221.05	$252.65	+$31.6
PI PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR	Team Yandexavg 45¢	$1.1K	$746.46	-$319.91	56% 166-133 (299)
PA panpidaras1	Team Spiritavg 37¢	$400	$740.54	+$108.11	51% 209-204 (413)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Spiritavg 53.4¢	$442.34	$567.47	+$125.13	51% 1833-1762 (3595)
eblomixer	Team Spiritavg 47.3¢	$389.47	$564.44	+$174.97	57% 504-377 (881)
OJ ojgtubvdtCTR	Team Yandexavg 57.1¢	$914	$504	-$410	62% 646-392 (1038)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Team Yandexavg 27.5¢	$437.76	$500.55	+$62.79	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	Team Yandexavg 43¢	$621.78	$455.49	-$166.29	41% 286-420 (706)

omnibus-076daa

Team Spirit

Invested

$11,965.36

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$12.4K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Team Spirit

Invested

$10,094.4

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$9.7K

Record

58%

907-653 (1560)

SineNooneEI

Team Spirit

Invested

$5,126.86

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

923-754 (1677)

pnhctARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$8,842.22

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$71.58

Record

53%

532-465 (997)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$5,196.1156.8¢+$983.11

Team Yandex$3,646.143.3¢-$911.54

tony1919CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$9,034.22

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$846.44

Record

79%

42-11 (53)

madkkee

Team Spirit

Invested

$4,312.17

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$692.99

Record

66%

1047-533 (1580)

fraagenCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$4,560

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$80

Record

45%

61-76 (137)

StudyPrediction

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,329.5

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

vibing123CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$6,600

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

52%

1575-1457 (3032)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,872.47

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$199.93

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$1,385.3148.9¢+$550.21

Team Yandex$1,538.8543.8¢-$350.29

TrippleEXCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,950

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$150

Record

58%

300-216 (516)

ChopperyyyCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,779.1

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$731.34

Record

64%

381-217 (598)

drunkdegenerateCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$30

Record

54%

198-167 (365)

BabooouCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$3,900

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

214-200 (414)

tghj20CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,251.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$127.77

Record

49%

63-65 (128)

BillBenter2026

Team Spirit

Invested

$498.95

Value

$932.24

PnL

+$433.29

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

lonmi2511

Team Spirit

Invested

$630.97

Value

$776.32

PnL

+$145.35

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$562.18

Value

$747.52

PnL

+$185.35

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Both legs:

Team Spirit$341.1245.8¢+$153.75

Team Yandex$221.0529.3¢+$31.6

PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$1,066.38

Value

$746.46

PnL

-$319.91

Record

56%

166-133 (299)

panpidaras1

Team Spirit

Invested

$400

Value

$740.54

PnL

+$108.11

Record

51%

209-204 (413)

yishiwucheng

Team Spirit

Invested

$442.34

Value

$567.47

PnL

+$125.13

Record

51%

1833-1762 (3595)

eblomixer

Team Spirit

Invested

$389.47

Value

$564.44

PnL

+$174.97

Record

57%

504-377 (881)

ojgtubvdtCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$914

Value

$504

PnL

-$410

Record

62%

646-392 (1038)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$437.76

Value

$500.55

PnL

+$62.79

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$621.78

Value

$455.49

PnL

-$166.29

Record

41%

286-420 (706)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Yandex at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team Yandex

17 of 31 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Team Spirit 76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Team Yandex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpTeam Yandex 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 58% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Spirit 50% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Yandex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.