Consensus PnL $1.7M · win rate 52% (1533–1396, n=2929) · PM monthly #45 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$1.7M
Record
1533W / 1396L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 2929 settled
Batting Avg
71.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1612
Source
PM monthly #45 + pinned
Trades
122,927
Markets
4,817
Volume
$28.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $265K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
Specialties
3,221 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 45¢- Esports
+15 pts
side won 60% of 2456 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +12%
- Tennis
+17 pts
side won 51% of 76 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+5 pts
side won 50% of 447 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 19% of 689)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 56% of 1354)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 79% of 879)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 100% of 299)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.