Consensus PnL $24K · win rate 56% (27761–22081, n=49842) · was PM monthly #902 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$23.8K
Record
27761W / 22081L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 49842 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1453
Source
PM monthly #902
Record (90 d)
7969/7974 · 99%
Trades
518
Markets
52,862
Volume
$6.5M
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETUp $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (53% of 58)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETDown $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (92% of 68)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ETUp $3.4K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (87% of 56)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETUp $3.3K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (71% of 66)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ETUp $3.3K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (69% of 74)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETUp $3.0K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (91% of 56)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ETUp $2.7K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (85% of 55)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ETUp $1.7K · now 50¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (76% of 58)
Specialties
10,282 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 85¢- Crypto
+14 pts
side won 100% of 10282 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 99% of 2670)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 100% of 7607)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.