Consensus PnL $573K · win rate 59% (1733–1217, n=2950) · PM monthly #205 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$573.2K
Record
1733W / 1217L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 2950 settled
Batting Avg
53.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1207
Source
PM monthly #205
Trades
12,981
Markets
8,570
Volume
$18.2M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $7.9K · now 36¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Valentin Vacherot)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $1.4K · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (57% of 25)
- Bratislava 2: Matyas Cerny vs Sebastian SorgerSebastian Sorger $4 · now 100¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
Specialties
1,371 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 62¢- Tennis
+22 pts
side won 84% of 1367 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 24% of 199)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 76% of 173)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 95% of 343)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 99% of 656)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.