Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot

13 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Vacherot (45%) · Valentin Vacherot at 72¢ · $122K held · ends Nov 8

Jiri Lehecka28¢Valentin Vacherot72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valentin Vacherot

Consensus Traders

Valentin Vacherot 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$121.8K

Combined PnL

$7.9K

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 71.5¢

+94% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

13 of 29 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jiri Lehecka28%

Valentin Vacherot72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valentin Vacherot13 traders

Total Value$74.9K

Total Shares162,607

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Jiri Lehecka16 traders

Total Value$29.4K

Total Shares46,170

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Valentin Vacherot — 45%Jiri Lehecka — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Valentin Vacherotavg 34¢	$20.0K	$27.8K	+$7.9K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
NA Nathan8s	Valentin Vacherotavg 39.2¢	$24.0K	$22.6K	$-1.3K	5% 1-21 (22)
KK Kkunn	Valentin Vacherotavg 38¢	$17.3K	$16.8K	$-2.5K	44% 235-303 (538)
NO Novelty8CTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 61.1¢	$15.3K	$15.8K	+$470.05	71% 639-265 (904)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 68.4¢	$9.6K	$9.1K	-$498.41	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 30.3¢	$2.6K	$6.5K	+$3.9K
└ Jiri Lehecka leg	Jiri Leheckaavg 68.4¢	$6.9K	$2.6K	$-4.3K
TRCMCTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 62.5¢	$5.7K	$7.9K	+$2.1K	55% 3961-3190 (7151)
RN1ARB<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 79¢	$12.2K	$6.8K	$-5.4K	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 66.3¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$378.49
└ Jiri Lehecka leg	Jiri Leheckaavg 79¢	$8.6K	$2.9K	$-5.7K
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Valentin Vacherotavg 31¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$66.22	55% 1778-1467 (3245)
tradecraftCTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 62¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$406.43	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 66.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$602.04	60% 4104-2765 (6869)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 76.9¢	$5.4K	$1.7K	-$28.88	53% 674-597 (1271)
└ Valentin Vacherot leg	Valentin Vacherotavg 26.5¢	$465.17	$1.3K	+$767.22
└ Jiri Lehecka leg	Jiri Leheckaavg 76.9¢	$1.0K	$358.92	-$796.1
MR MrDouche	Valentin Vacherotavg 32.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$57.16	82% 1693-368 (2061)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Valentin Vacherotavg 38¢	$571.54	$556.5	-$15.04	38% 505-817 (1322)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Valentin Vacherotavg 37.8¢	$512.6	$529.49	-$3.47	45% 400-497 (897)
VeryLucky888	Valentin Vacherotavg 37¢	$555	$502.5	-$52.5	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0xheavy888CTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 62.4¢	$315.04	$485.98	+$170.94	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
RR rroosterCTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 70¢	$350	$347.5	-$2.5	63% 1345-794 (2139)
OM omnibus-076daa	Valentin Vacherotavg 45.2¢	$228.17	$335.49	+$107.32	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 61.7¢	$112.7	$115.03	+$2.33	65% 1758-962 (2720)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Jiri Leheckaavg 62¢	$5.6K	$108.28	-$86.56	58% 2761-1975 (4736)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 37¢	$85.59	$85.59	-$0	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
SE sentrio<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 15.1¢	$18.04	$79.63	+$61.6	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 56.9¢	$44.65	$49.06	+$4.42	57% 227-172 (399)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 69.7¢	$30	$36.78	+$6.78	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Valentin Vacherotavg 46¢	$24.49	$32.88	+$8.39	48% 8966-9597 (18563)

UpTheBlues

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$19,969.75

Value

$27.8K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Nathan8s

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$23,981.91

Value

$22.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

1-21 (22)

Kkunn

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$17,250.32

Value

$16.8K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

44%

235-303 (538)

Novelty8CTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$15,283.1

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$470.05

Record

71%

639-265 (904)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$9,583.93

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$498.41

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$2,646.130.3¢+$3.9K

Jiri Lehecka$6,937.8368.4¢$-4.3K

TRCMCTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$5,748

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

55%

3961-3190 (7151)

RN1ARB<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$12,151.13

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$3,501.2866.3¢+$378.49

Jiri Lehecka$8,649.8579¢$-5.7K

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$4,105.55

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$66.22

Record

55%

1778-1467 (3245)

tradecraftCTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$2,369.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$406.43

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$1,785.96

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$602.04

Record

60%

4104-2765 (6869)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$5,413.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$28.88

Record

53%

674-597 (1271)

Both legs:

Valentin Vacherot$465.1726.5¢+$767.22

Jiri Lehecka$1,041.1976.9¢-$796.1

MrDouche

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$1,264.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$57.16

Record

82%

1693-368 (2061)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$571.54

Value

$556.5

PnL

-$15.04

Record

38%

505-817 (1322)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$512.6

Value

$529.49

PnL

-$3.47

Record

45%

400-497 (897)

VeryLucky888

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$555

Value

$502.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0xheavy888CTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$315.04

Value

$485.98

PnL

+$170.94

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

rroosterCTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$350

Value

$347.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

63%

1345-794 (2139)

omnibus-076daa

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$228.17

Value

$335.49

PnL

+$107.32

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

darkumbreon88CTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$112.7

Value

$115.03

PnL

+$2.33

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

flatbarrelCTR

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$5,580

Value

$108.28

PnL

-$86.56

Record

58%

2761-1975 (4736)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$85.59

Value

$85.59

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

sentrio<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$18.04

Value

$79.63

PnL

+$61.6

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$44.65

Value

$49.06

PnL

+$4.42

Record

57%

227-172 (399)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$30

Value

$36.78

PnL

+$6.78

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

topdogbigboi<$100

Valentin Vacherot

Invested

$24.49

Value

$32.88

PnL

+$8.39

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

Research grade

NeutralValentin Vacherot at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Vacherot

13 of 29 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valentin Vacherot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.