Consensus PnL $438K · win rate 45% (259–322, n=581) · PM monthly #803 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$437.5K
Record
259W / 322L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 581 settled
Batting Avg
65.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1979
Source
PM monthly #803
Trades
581
Markets
650
Volume
$6.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?No $462 · now 1¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
580 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 41¢- Esports
+33 pts
side won 88% of 33 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +36%
- MLB
+16 pts
side won 60% of 48 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +13%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 45% of 404 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 33% of 21 at an average 35¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 27% of 135)
- 30–50¢: 49%(won 50% of 285)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 62% of 148)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.