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4E
Consensus PnL $464K · win rate 58% (342–244, n=586) · PM monthly #73 · holds 2 consensus positions
0x4ebc2722...5499a33dPolymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$464.5K
Record
342W / 244L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 586 settled
Batting Avg
12.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1290
Source
PM monthly #73
Trades
15,556
Markets
1,921
Volume
$21.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves $3.2K · now 100¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (71% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs100 Thieves $1.7K · now 100¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
690 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 80¢- Esports
+20 pts
side won 100% of 690 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 98% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 100% of 125)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 100% of 514)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.