Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 100 Thieves (64%) · 100 Thieves at 86¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1

100 Thieves86¢BESTIA14¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

100 Thieves

Consensus Traders

100 Thieves 64%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$591.36

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 85.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

100 Thieves86%

BESTIA14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BESTIA4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares19,356

Combined PnL-$745.99

100 Thieves7 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,210

Combined PnL+$154.63

BESTIA — 36%100 Thieves — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123CTR	BESTIAavg 20¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$449.98	52% 1575-1457 (3032)
AA aaaa298	100 Thievesavg 89.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$10.56	59% 792-554 (1346)
PN pnhct	100 Thievesavg 85.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$60.37	53% 532-465 (997)
NO nobody2somebody	100 Thievesavg 80¢	$923.94	$970.14	+$46.2	52% 634-597 (1231)
KateBollingerCTR	BESTIAavg 20¢	$800	$720	-$300	68% 1753-815 (2568)
II iii252	100 Thievesavg 78.9¢	$281.12	$327.36	+$44.51	57% 1143-875 (2018)
hasobidale	100 Thievesavg 80¢	$160	$168	+$8	66% 225-118 (343)
AM ameisgoat11	100 Thievesavg 82.8¢	$110.51	$119.25	+$8.74	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
poshposh<$100	100 Thievesavg 88¢	$57.6	$54.98	-$2.62	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BESTIAavg 9¢	$11.16	$19.84	+$8.68	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100	BESTIAavg 9.6¢	$21.83	$17.14	-$4.69	53% 1106-972 (2078)

vibing123CTR

BESTIA

Invested

$3,000.58

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$449.98

Record

52%

1575-1457 (3032)

aaaa298

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,503.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$10.56

Record

59%

792-554 (1346)

pnhct

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,632.92

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$60.37

Record

53%

532-465 (997)

nobody2somebody

100 Thieves

Invested

$923.94

Value

$970.14

PnL

+$46.2

Record

52%

634-597 (1231)

KateBollingerCTR

BESTIA

Invested

$800

Value

$720

PnL

-$300

Record

68%

1753-815 (2568)

iii252

100 Thieves

Invested

$281.12

Value

$327.36

PnL

+$44.51

Record

57%

1143-875 (2018)

hasobidale

100 Thieves

Invested

$160

Value

$168

PnL

+$8

Record

66%

225-118 (343)

ameisgoat11

100 Thieves

Invested

$110.51

Value

$119.25

PnL

+$8.74

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

poshposh<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$57.6

Value

$54.98

PnL

-$2.62

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BESTIA

Invested

$11.16

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$8.68

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

TommyLeePeecaCTR<$100

BESTIA

Invested

$21.83

Value

$17.14

PnL

-$4.69

Record

53%

1106-972 (2078)

Research grade

Neutral100 Thieves at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

100 Thieves

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 100 Thieves wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.