Consensus PnL $153K · win rate 79% (167–45, n=212) · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$152.9K
Record
167W / 45L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 212 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#469
Trades
554
Markets
341
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $12K · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.9K · now 11¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
279 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 82¢- NBA
+16 pts
side won 92% of 155 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 91% of 22 · avg entry 79¢
ROI −1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 43% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 75% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 87% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 98% of 217)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.