Consensus PnL $385K · win rate 54% (26520–22860, n=49380) · PM monthly #273 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$384.7K
Record
26520W / 22860L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 49380 settled
Batting Avg
46.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1478
Source
PM monthly #273
Trades
634
Markets
89,115
Volume
$13.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?Up $721 · now 97¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
34,233 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 54¢- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 74% of 34233 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 20% of 9118)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 75% of 4705)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 94% of 6880)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 99% of 13530)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.