Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (89%) · Up at 94¢ · $54K held · ends Nov 1

Up94¢Down6¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

Up 89%

Total Value

$54.3K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 94¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateUp at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up94%

Down6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$54.2K

Total Shares55,550

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Down1 trader

Total Value$175.45

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL-$183.95

Up — 89%Down — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUp 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Upavg 79.4¢	$47.0K	$48.1K	+$1.6K	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0xDB5	Upavg 74.6¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	+$346.17	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
19 196874353278	Upavg 72.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$294.63	45% 212-263 (475)
TO Tokor	Upavg 52¢	$485.55	$863.94	+$378.39	62% 795-490 (1285)
GO gobblewobble	Upavg 74.5¢	$880.67	$759.16	-$149.84	59% 877-611 (1488)
BO bosona	Upavg 68.6¢	$541.3	$729.45	+$188.15	55% 50150-40327 (90477)
AL almach	Upavg 68.5¢	$548	$721.11	+$141.09	55% 48790-40333 (89123)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR	Downavg 25.9¢	$359.39	$175.45	-$183.95	59% 1064-740 (1804)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 60.7¢	$11.87	$29.35	+$1.7	59% 22850-16209 (39059)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$46,977.84

Value

$48.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0xDB5

Invested

$2,897.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$346.17

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

196874353278

Invested

$1,256.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$294.63

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

Tokor

Invested

$485.55

Value

$863.94

PnL

+$378.39

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

gobblewobble

Invested

$880.67

Value

$759.16

PnL

-$149.84

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

bosona

Invested

$541.3

Value

$729.45

PnL

+$188.15

Record

55%

50150-40327 (90477)

almach

Invested

$548

Value

$721.11

PnL

+$141.09

Record

55%

48790-40333 (89123)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR

Down

Invested

$359.39

Value

$175.45

PnL

-$183.95

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$11.87

Value

$29.35

PnL

+$1.7

Record

59%

22850-16209 (39059)

Research grade

Research candidateUp at 94%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUp 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.