Consensus PnL $212K · win rate 57% (967–719, n=1686) · was PM monthly #914 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$212.4K
Record
967W / 719L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 1686 settled
Batting Avg
61.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1323
Source
PM monthly #914
Trades
1,755
Markets
28,801
Volume
$16.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ETDown $32 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (70% of 27)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ETDown $8 · now 0¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
939 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 60¢- Crypto
+40 pts
side won 100% of 939 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 48)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 100% of 240)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 100% of 351)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 100% of 300)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.