Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

19 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$70.63

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 27 top traders (70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,015

Combined PnL-$106.86

Down19 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,703

Combined PnL+$36.24

Up — 30%Down — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 42.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$36.02	56% 14924-11728 (26652)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$844.01	$844.43	+$0.42	59% 62677-43754 (106431)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$387.91	$389.87	+$1.96	93% 24319-1811 (26130)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 50.5¢	$269.9	$279.3	+$9.4	54% 11314-9625 (20939)
TM tmsd-test	Downavg 89¢	$153.92	$167.22	+$13.29	54% 14578-12427 (27005)
NIULAI4	Downavg 89.2¢	$91.84	$102.49	+$10.65	76% 9516-2949 (12465)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 62¢	$89.28	$100.02	+$10.74	62% 44284-27268 (71552)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$71.04	$83.28	+$12.24	65% 4332-2383 (6715)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$56.37	$82.85	+$26.48	56% 58635-45291 (103926)
AS asabovesobelow2<$100	Downavg 80.6¢	$64.5	$76	+$11.5	68% 1708-799 (2507)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95.1¢	$92.58	$74.62	-$17.96	61% 96050-60547 (156597)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96¢	$91.61	$71.89	-$19.72	66% 127109-65406 (192515)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95.9¢	$79.85	$67.38	-$12.47	52% 91321-85769 (177090)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$78.75	$58.53	-$18.12	65% 126454-67593 (194047)
ohioismCTR	Upavg 40.4¢	$129.3	$56.17	-$73.12	64% 40639-23326 (63965)
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 58.4¢	$110.99	$51.31	-$59.68	74% 103044-36553 (139597)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 43.3¢	$59.25	$39.03	-$20.22	57% 12760-9487 (22247)
BE beeemwCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$39.88	$39.03	-$0.85	78% 321-90 (411)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$44.07	$38.02	+$14.05	64% 24882-13745 (38627)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$24.43	$31.84	+$7.41	54% 15429-13318 (28747)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$42.25	$30.65	-$11.6	58% 61090-44611 (105701)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$28.9	$29.57	+$0.67	55% 18379-14972 (33351)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 59¢	$16.86	$26.71	+$9.86	65% 112572-59423 (171995)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 55¢	$27.5	$24.75	-$2.75	58% 38498-27579 (66077)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$21.38	$24	+$2.61	35% 19121-36132 (55253)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$1,022.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.02

Record

56%

14924-11728 (26652)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$844.01

Value

$844.43

PnL

+$0.42

Record

59%

62677-43754 (106431)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$387.91

Value

$389.87

PnL

+$1.96

Record

93%

24319-1811 (26130)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$269.9

Value

$279.3

PnL

+$9.4

Record

54%

11314-9625 (20939)

tmsd-test

Down

Invested

$153.92

Value

$167.22

PnL

+$13.29

Record

54%

14578-12427 (27005)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$91.84

Value

$102.49

PnL

+$10.65

Record

76%

9516-2949 (12465)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$89.28

Value

$100.02

PnL

+$10.74

Record

62%

44284-27268 (71552)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$71.04

Value

$83.28

PnL

+$12.24

Record

65%

4332-2383 (6715)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$56.37

Value

$82.85

PnL

+$26.48

Record

56%

58635-45291 (103926)

asabovesobelow2<$100

Down

Invested

$64.5

Value

$76

PnL

+$11.5

Record

68%

1708-799 (2507)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$92.58

Value

$74.62

PnL

-$17.96

Record

61%

96050-60547 (156597)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$91.61

Value

$71.89

PnL

-$19.72

Record

66%

127109-65406 (192515)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$79.85

Value

$67.38

PnL

-$12.47

Record

52%

91321-85769 (177090)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$78.75

Value

$58.53

PnL

-$18.12

Record

65%

126454-67593 (194047)

ohioismCTR

Invested

$129.3

Value

$56.17

PnL

-$73.12

Record

64%

40639-23326 (63965)

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$110.99

Value

$51.31

PnL

-$59.68

Record

74%

103044-36553 (139597)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$59.25

Value

$39.03

PnL

-$20.22

Record

57%

12760-9487 (22247)

beeemwCTR<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$39.03

PnL

-$0.85

Record

78%

321-90 (411)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$44.07

Value

$38.02

PnL

+$14.05

Record

64%

24882-13745 (38627)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$24.43

Value

$31.84

PnL

+$7.41

Record

54%

15429-13318 (28747)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$42.25

Value

$30.65

PnL

-$11.6

Record

58%

61090-44611 (105701)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$28.9

Value

$29.57

PnL

+$0.67

Record

55%

18379-14972 (33351)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$16.86

Value

$26.71

PnL

+$9.86

Record

65%

112572-59423 (171995)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$27.5

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

58%

38498-27579 (66077)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$21.38

Value

$24

PnL

+$2.61

Record

35%

19121-36132 (55253)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 27 top traders (70%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.