Consensus PnL $100K · win rate 50% (1148–1162, n=2310) · was PM monthly #874 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$100.3K
Record
1148W / 1162L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 2310 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1164
Source
PM monthly #874
Record (90 d)
785/1643 · 48%
Trades
1,522
Markets
2,947
Volume
$5.3M
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Specialties
2,372 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 48¢- NBA
+4 pts
side won 49% of 956 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +1%
- MLB
+3 pts
side won 53% of 164 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +1%
- College Basketball
+3 pts
side won 50% of 125 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 49% of 560 at an average 52¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 18% of 385)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 40% of 866)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 61% of 832)
- 70¢ and up: 12%(won 84% of 289)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.