Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 57% (485–366, n=851) · was PM monthly #331 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$36.3K
Record
485W / 366L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 851 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1332
Source
PM monthly #331
Trades
170
Markets
905
Volume
$660.1K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?No $770 · now 78¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
Specialties
794 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 55¢- Other Sports
+22 pts
side won 79% of 28 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +24%
- Esports
+6 pts
side won 60% of 222 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 60% of 247 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 51% of 240 at an average 51¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 17% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 48% of 210)
- 50–70¢: 54%(won 59% of 432)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 87% of 116)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.