Will T1 win Worlds 2026?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 78¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 29

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 77.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares24,483

Combined PnL-$609.87

Yes8 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares62,502

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ColdW	Noavg 78.4¢	$13.5K	$13.2K	-$153.36	61% 2021-1298 (3319)
PA para-VisionCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$7.8K	$8.7K	+$971.69	56% 219-174 (393)
EQ equalsignificance	Noavg 82.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$144.65	54% 212-184 (396)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 83¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$110	53% 4588-4006 (8594)
LadyLuck2CTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$912.89	$1.4K	+$419.03	54% 297-250 (547)
WarewaPainCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$46.38	43% 466-611 (1077)
enpirugbrpti	Noavg 86¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$136.86	54% 3501-2966 (6467)
CL CLj0711CTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$738.72	$1.1K	+$318.4	44% 297-385 (682)
BE betwithconvic	Noavg 84¢	$840	$770	-$65	57% 487-369 (856)
GH ghorrockCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$77.8	$647.36	+$439	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$127.06	$583.36	+$430.27	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 16.9¢	$345.08	$489.12	+$113.52	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
0X 0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$16.68	$24.14	+$5.95	54% 133-112 (245)

ColdW

Invested

$13,483.37

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$153.36

Record

61%

2021-1298 (3319)

para-VisionCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,773.2

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$971.69

Record

56%

219-174 (393)

equalsignificance

Invested

$2,216.05

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$144.65

Record

54%

212-184 (396)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$1,659.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$110

Record

53%

4588-4006 (8594)

LadyLuck2CTR

Yes

Invested

$912.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$419.03

Record

54%

297-250 (547)

WarewaPainCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,247.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$46.38

Record

43%

466-611 (1077)

enpirugbrpti

Invested

$1,384.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$136.86

Record

54%

3501-2966 (6467)

CLj0711CTR

Yes

Invested

$738.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$318.4

Record

44%

297-385 (682)

betwithconvic

Invested

$840

Value

$770

PnL

-$65

Record

57%

487-369 (856)

ghorrockCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.8

Value

$647.36

PnL

+$439

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$127.06

Value

$583.36

PnL

+$430.27

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$345.08

Value

$489.12

PnL

+$113.52

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

0x4c07bf46017Ef52C0bEA3FE4253185DeC1316200-1769689308184CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.68

Value

$24.14

PnL

+$5.95

Record

54%

133-112 (245)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.