Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 38% (1852–3003, n=4855) · PM monthly #439 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.5K
Record
1852W / 3003L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 4855 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2493
Source
PM monthly #439
Record (90 d)
1106/5706 · 19%
Trades
63,448
Markets
25,565
Volume
$3.0M
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETDown $644 · now 100¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (82% of 41)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $565 · now 100¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (68% of 40)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETDown $301 · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETUp $226 · now 100¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (65% of 20)
- Solana Up or Down - November 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETDown $172 · now 0¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (60% of 11)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETDown $60 · now 100¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Solana Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $47 · now 100¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (55% of 11)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ETDown $39 · now 100¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
Specialties
1,078 settled consensus markets · held side won 16% at an average entry of 22¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where blue.birds's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 16% of 1078 at an average 22¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 73%(won 1% of 792)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 14% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 53% of 88)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 97% of 117)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.