Consensus PnL -$21K · win rate 90% (9–1, n=10) · PM monthly #691 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-21.0K
Record
9W / 1L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#247
Source
PM monthly #691
Trades
31
Markets
16
Volume
$7.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $13K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (59% of 28)
- Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No $7.4K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
9 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 99¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where bullishkirby2's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.