US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

16 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $143K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.0K

Combined PnL

$13.9K

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 96.7¢

+17% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$139.8K

Total Shares144,846

Combined PnL+$28.0K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares93,636

Combined PnL$-14.1K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4746h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 14

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 61% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 81.7¢	$39.0K	$43.8K	+$4.7K	61% 839-544 (1383)
DE denizz	Noavg 74.6¢	$82.3K	$34.4K	+$17.2K	68% 597-284 (881)
bullishkirby2	Noavg 92.8¢	$12.8K	$13.3K	+$539.97	— 8-1 (9)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 88¢	$8.8K	$9.7K	+$876.75	85% 605-108 (713)
TH thoodr	Noavg 95.5¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$125	96% 631-24 (655)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 77.5¢	$7.4K	$9.3K	+$1.8K	87% 95-14 (109)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 91.3¢	$6.7K	$7.1K	+$395.87	80% 168-42 (210)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 73¢	$3.6K	$4.8K	+$1.2K	89% 563-67 (630)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 87¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$280.8	88% 212-28 (240)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$10.4K	$1.7K	$-8.6K	47% 476-535 (1011)
BT BTCGambler247	Noavg 72¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$420.75	47% 217-240 (457)
VO vovatoxic	Noavg 75¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$290.1	49% 70-74 (144)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.7¢	$993.09	$1.1K	+$110.85	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Talophex	Noavg 90.7¢	$960.63	$978.52	+$17.89	91% 929-95 (1024)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$2.6K	$625.61	$-2.0K	56% 973-770 (1743)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$2.8K	$325	$-2.5K	63% 353-204 (557)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$344.11	$211.57	-$132.54	9% 48-465 (513)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$201.65	$115.19	-$86.46	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.1¢	$307.12	$65.97	-$91.76
└ No leg	Noavg 76.4¢	$38.94	$49.22	+$5.3
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 24.7¢	$430.55	$56.55	-$373.98	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
TheKinginYellow<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$51.59	$55.5	+$3.92	68% 830-398 (1228)
studmuffin6969CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$135	$16.25	-$118.75	59% 1027-717 (1744)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$16.96	$13.78	-$3.18	58% 844-614 (1458)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$132	$13	-$119	38% 567-944 (1511)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$40.55	$13	-$27.55	66% 955-482 (1437)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$78	$9.75	-$68.25	56% 1213-967 (2180)

tetrase

Invested

$39,021.31

Value

$43.8K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

denizz

Invested

$82,262.35

Value

$34.4K

PnL

+$17.2K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

bullishkirby2

Invested

$12,786.36

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$539.97

Record

—

8-1 (9)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$8,817.6

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$876.75

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

thoodr

Invested

$9,550

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$125

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

skibabiba

Invested

$7,441.98

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

TerreMoto

Invested

$6,676.35

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$395.87

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$3,650

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$2,505.6

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$280.8

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,379.88

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-8.6K

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

BTCGambler247

Invested

$1,224

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$420.75

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

vovatoxic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$290.1

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$993.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$110.85

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Talophex

Invested

$960.63

Value

$978.52

PnL

+$17.89

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,629.83

Value

$625.61

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,847.37

Value

$325

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$344.11

Value

$211.57

PnL

-$132.54

Record

48-465 (513)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$201.65

Value

$115.19

PnL

-$86.46

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$307.1215.1¢-$91.76

No$38.9476.4¢+$5.3

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$430.55

Value

$56.55

PnL

-$373.98

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

TheKinginYellow<$100

Invested

$51.59

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$3.92

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

studmuffin6969CTR

Yes

Invested

$135

Value

$16.25

PnL

-$118.75

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$16.96

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$3.18

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$132

Value

$13

PnL

-$119

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.55

Value

$13

PnL

-$27.55

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$68.25

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4746h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 86% · 14

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 61% · 18

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.