Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 94¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$7.9K
-$4.63
94.2¢ → 94.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4667h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bullishkirby2 | Noavg 95¢ | $7.7K | $7.4K | -$66.58 | — 8-1 (9) |
 Xeny | Noavg 79.8¢ | $323.39 | $381.12 | +$57.73 | 60% 978-662 (1640) |
 StudyPrediction<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $97.34 | $93.99 | -$3.35 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $27.92 | $30.16 | +$2.29 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $21.62 | $23.54 | +$1.92 | 50% 7330-7454 (14784) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $1.32 | $4.68 | +$3.37 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
bullishkirby2Invested
$7,717.51
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$66.58
Record
—
8-1 (9)
XenyInvested
$323.39
Value
$381.12
PnL
+$57.73
Record
60%
978-662 (1640)
StudyPrediction<$100Invested
$97.34
Value
$93.99
PnL
-$3.35
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$27.92
Value
$30.16
PnL
+$2.29
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$21.62
Value
$23.54
PnL
+$1.92
Record
50%
7330-7454 (14784)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$3.37
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.