Consensus PnL $47K · win rate 44% (381–482, n=863) · was PM monthly #862 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$46.9K
Record
381W / 482L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 863 settled
Batting Avg
16.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2011
Source
PM monthly #862
Trades
826
Markets
1,052
Volume
$7.0M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.4K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $143 · now 12¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
394 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 51¢- Esports
+46 pts
side won 96% of 380 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- NBA
+19 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 73% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 96% of 127)
- 50–70¢: 52%(won 100% of 203)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.