Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 5.3¢ · $21K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

3.9¢ → 5.3¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares348,058

Combined PnL+$5.2K

No1 trader

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,026

Combined PnL-$3.52

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$9.4K	$14.5K	+$5.4K	33% 42-86 (128)
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486	Noavg 95.2¢	$69.83	$2.9K	-$3.52	11% 20-165 (185)
saintaphextwinCTR	Yesavg 7.8¢	$2.8K	$1.9K	-$879.99	39% 397-627 (1024)
cruzNBACTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$876.93	$1.4K	+$489.82	42% 412-566 (978)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$160	$267.5	+$107.5	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$154.18	$170.59	+$18.02	54% 399-345 (744)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 4.8¢	$149.39	$164.96	+$15.56	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$4.61	$79.8	+$36.94	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$53.69	$35.43	-$1.51	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$3.23	$2.9	-$0.3	41% 1281-1829 (3110)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,381.47

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486

Invested

$69.83

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$3.52

Record

11%

20-165 (185)

saintaphextwinCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,774.1

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$879.99

Record

39%

397-627 (1024)

cruzNBACTR

Yes

Invested

$876.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$489.82

Record

42%

412-566 (978)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$107.5

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.18

Value

$170.59

PnL

+$18.02

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.39

Value

$164.96

PnL

+$15.56

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.61

Value

$79.8

PnL

+$36.94

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.69

Value

$35.43

PnL

-$1.51

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$0.3

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.6%

5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1404.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

1504.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.