Consensus PnL -$65K · win rate 89% (1228–147, n=1375) · was PM monthly #950 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-64.7K
Record
1228W / 147L
Win Rate
89.0%
of 1375 settled
Batting Avg
54.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#252
Source
PM monthly #950
Trades
794
Markets
1,630
Volume
$18.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No $463 · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
Specialties
1,285 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 89¢- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +6%
- Entertainment
+11 pts
side won 60% of 15 · avg entry 49¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 95% of 85 at an average 97¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 8% of 79)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 37% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 56% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 98% of 1106)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.