Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 57% (4–3, n=7) · was PM monthly #945 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.7K
Record
4W / 3L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1373
Source
PM monthly #945
Trades
30
Markets
13
Volume
$137.3K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $25K · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $19K · now 77¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $17K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 57¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where dwarf123's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 50%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.