US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

12 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $84K held · ends Nov 3

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$84.3K

Combined PnL

$863.32

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 96.8¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$80.1K

Total Shares82,823

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares127,298

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

89h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 94.9¢	$27.6K	$21.1K	+$526.7	61% 839-544 (1383)
DW dwarf123	Noavg 92.3¢	$16.3K	$17.1K	+$848.66	— 4-2 (6)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 94.7¢	$13.9K	$14.2K	+$380.24	89% 4653-547 (5200)
MEPP	Noavg 93¢	$9.9K	$10.2K	+$315.49	64% 633-352 (985)
BR browne	Noavg 96.9¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	-$28.09	71% 173-70 (243)
JE Jest55	Noavg 90.5¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$230.35	75% 1028-338 (1366)
paddaa	Noavg 88.1¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$217.1	56% 836-645 (1481)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$3.1K	$1.8K	$-1.3K	40% 704-1062 (1766)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$16.73	73% 160-59 (219)
88 881112	Noavg 90.4¢	$994	$1.1K	+$74.65	38% 567-944 (1511)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$387.13	$884.29	+$497.16	58% 844-614 (1458)
Udonsan	Noavg 94¢	$720.92	$741.63	+$16.87	79% 250-67 (317)
betwickCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$750.09	$499.33	-$250.76	55% 353-292 (645)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 6.7¢	$722.23	$348.76	-$373.48	38% 20-32 (52)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 8.2¢	$710	$330	-$380	46% 1978-2361 (4339)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.4K	$233.12	+$90.2	59% 986-684 (1670)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$87.16	$89.61	+$2.44	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$61.42	$77.81	+$16.38	68% 2074-958 (3032)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.92	$38.68	-$0.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$90	$33	-$57	73% 2953-1072 (4025)

tetrase

Invested

$27,604.26

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$526.7

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

dwarf123

Invested

$16,318

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$848.66

Record

—

4-2 (6)

nonkenny90

Invested

$13,903.9

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$380.24

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

MEPP

Invested

$9,851.84

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$315.49

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

browne

Invested

$7,811.86

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$28.09

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

Jest55

Invested

$3,646.33

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$230.35

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

paddaa

Invested

$2,340.13

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$217.1

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,093.43

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022

Invested

$1,345.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$16.73

Record

73%

160-59 (219)

881112

Invested

$994

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$74.65

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$387.13

Value

$884.29

PnL

+$497.16

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Udonsan

Invested

$720.92

Value

$741.63

PnL

+$16.87

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

betwickCTR

Yes

Invested

$750.09

Value

$499.33

PnL

-$250.76

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$722.23

Value

$348.76

PnL

-$373.48

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$710

Value

$330

PnL

-$380

Record

46%

1978-2361 (4339)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,380.4

Value

$233.12

PnL

+$90.2

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$87.16

Value

$89.61

PnL

+$2.44

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.42

Value

$77.81

PnL

+$16.38

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$38.92

Value

$38.68

PnL

-$0.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$33

PnL

-$57

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

89h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.