Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

45 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 77¢ · $700K held · ends Nov 4

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$699.5K

Combined PnL

$-136.9K

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 76.5¢

+13% since entry · 45 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 77%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 57 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No45 traders

Total Value$503.7K

Total Shares655,523

Combined PnL+$50.5K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$190.4K

Total Shares827,076

Combined PnL$-187.5K

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

45 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 76% · 21

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 19

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 30

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 87% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 39

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Euan	Noavg 77¢	$140.2K	$137.3K	$-2.8K	70% 1183-510 (1693)
WA wan123	Noavg 62.9¢	$84.0K	$102.2K	+$18.2K	39% 196-304 (500)
FO forcestrut1CTR	Yesavg 55.8¢	$114.1K	$86.0K	$-104.9K	—
DR drop126CTR	Yesavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$84.1K	$-79.1K	— 1-1 (2)
JA jaja5050	Noavg 54.5¢	$25.7K	$33.2K	+$8.6K	63% 182-109 (291)
cambridgeisaac	Noavg 72.9¢	$31.8K	$32.1K	+$305.86	57% 1113-837 (1950)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Noavg 56.6¢	$14.8K	$20.0K	+$5.2K	53% 915-808 (1723)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 64.3¢	$17.4K	$19.3K	+$1.9K	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
DW dwarf123	Noavg 73.1¢	$22.2K	$19.3K	+$1.1K	— 4-2 (6)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 65.4¢	$15.4K	$18.1K	+$2.1K	80% 437-110 (547)
FL flawfence	Noavg 74¢	$13.2K	$13.6K	+$445.85	46% 271-319 (590)
0xheavy888	Noavg 57.4¢	$9.7K	$13.0K	+$3.3K	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 61.5¢	$10.5K	$12.5K	+$2.0K	76% 145-47 (192)
paddaa	Noavg 75.6¢	$11.9K	$12.1K	-$169.14	56% 836-644 (1480)
OB Obilic	Noavg 49¢	$1.2K	$10.4K	+$2.0K	40% 137-203 (340)
CO cowcat	Noavg 64¢	$2.3K	$10.1K	+$3.0K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 67.7¢	$7.1K	$7.8K	+$730.98	88% 2229-292 (2521)
HorribleWorkCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$6.3K	$5.8K	+$89.58	60% 465-309 (774)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$60.37	18% 365-1635 (2000)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$28.92
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$89.28
Tenebrus7	Noavg 70¢	$43.5K	$5.4K	+$84.63	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
KimJonEn	Noavg 51.3¢	$3.9K	$5.1K	+$1.5K	75% 946-311 (1257)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$27.8K	$5.1K	+$186.47	38% 20-32 (52)
mr.ozi	Noavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$325.11	68% 1239-582 (1821)
LO Logan.	Noavg 57.8¢	$2.7K	$3.6K	+$777.79	41% 648-925 (1573)
GollumGekko	Noavg 64.4¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$278.97	68% 2074-957 (3031)

Euan

Invested

$140,171.63

Value

$137.3K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

70%

1183-510 (1693)

wan123

Invested

$84,012.5

Value

$102.2K

PnL

+$18.2K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

forcestrut1CTR

Yes

Invested

$114,069.03

Value

$86.0K

PnL

$-104.9K

Record

—

drop126CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,196.48

Value

$84.1K

PnL

$-79.1K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

jaja5050

Invested

$25,688.64

Value

$33.2K

PnL

+$8.6K

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

cambridgeisaac

Invested

$31,842.3

Value

$32.1K

PnL

+$305.86

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invested

$14,790.21

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$17,431.72

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

dwarf123

Invested

$22,203.43

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

4-2 (6)

Kevindoto

Invested

$15,382.59

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

flawfence

Invested

$13,197.26

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$445.85

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0xheavy888

Invested

$9,749.89

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$10,536.88

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

paddaa

Invested

$11,900

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$169.14

Record

56%

836-644 (1480)

Obilic

Invested

$1,172.45

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

40%

137-203 (340)

cowcat

Invested

$2,250.83

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$7,115.57

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$730.98

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

HorribleWorkCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,308.98

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$89.58

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$5,545.82

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$60.37

Record

18%

365-1635 (2000)

Both legs:

No$4,184.0276.5¢+$28.92

Yes$1,347.7324.6¢-$89.28

Tenebrus7

Invested

$43,492.94

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$84.63

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

KimJonEn

Invested

$3,888.86

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$27,814.13

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$186.47

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

mr.ozi

Invested

$3,499.89

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$325.11

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

Logan.

Invested

$2,681.73

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$777.79

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

GollumGekko

Invested

$3,122.1

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$278.97

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 77%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

45 of 57 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

45 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 76% · 21

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 19

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 30

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 87% · 30

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 39

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.2%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.