Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 47% (273–305, n=578) · was PM monthly #854 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.7K
Record
273W / 305L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 578 settled
Batting Avg
51.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1309
Source
PM monthly #854
Record (90 d)
210/291 · 72%
Trades
321,531
Markets
7,659
Volume
$18.6M
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Marco CecchinatoFacundo Acosta $16 · now 84¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (88% of 18)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz $15 · now 47¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (34% of 47)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Nuno BorgesCasper Ruud $10 · now 69¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (59% of 18)
- Wizards vs. HawksHawks $7 · now 74¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (87% of 17)
- Bratislava 2: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij RodionovJurij Rodionov $7 · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (65% of 30)
Specialties
193 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 78¢- Tennis
+21 pts
side won 99% of 173 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+32 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 50% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 100% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 100% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 100% of 137)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.