Consensus PnL -$2.1K · win rate 62% (248–151, n=399) · was PM monthly #734 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-2.1K
Record
248W / 151L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 399 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1073
Source
PM monthly #734
Trades
68
Markets
431
Volume
$209.1K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-01?Yes $500 · now 77¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (50% of 11)
Specialties
421 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 61¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 65% of 390 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 45% of 11 at an average 51¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −16%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 21% of 33)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 42% of 69)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 64% of 180)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 85% of 139)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.