Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-01?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$38.75

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 74¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$684.54

Total Shares1,052

Combined PnL+$0.12

No6 traders

Total Value$419.26

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$38.87

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fraj0la	Yesavg 64¢	$500	$500	-$0	63% 234-135 (369)
LZ lzh1CTR	Noavg 36¢	$209.33	$209.33	+$0	43% 471-634 (1105)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 35.9¢	$153.32	$115.22	-$38.11	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 64¢	$114.55	$113.66	-$0.89	65% 1758-962 (2720)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$61.11	$61.5	+$0.4	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 36¢	$152.72	$57.73	-$94.99	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$131.41	$32.87	-$98.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78¢	$21.31	$24.86	+$3.55
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$54.72	$54.72	+$0	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$26.6	$25.2	-$1.05	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 35.6¢	$14.19	$14.35	+$0.16	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$6.57	$7.16	+$0.59	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.03	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.31	$0.44	+$0.13	58% 10670-7656 (18326)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

234-135 (369)

lzh1CTR

Invested

$209.33

Value

$209.33

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

471-634 (1105)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$153.32

Value

$115.22

PnL

-$38.11

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$114.55

Value

$113.66

PnL

-$0.89

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.11

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$152.72

Value

$57.73

PnL

-$94.99

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Both legs:

No$131.4136¢-$98.54

Yes$21.3178¢+$3.55

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$54.72

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.05

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$14.35

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.57

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.59

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-23 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.