Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 43% (6–8, n=14) · was PM monthly #842 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.3K
Record
6W / 8L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 14 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2055
Source
PM monthly #842
Trades
5
Markets
35
Volume
$140.0K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $511 · now 12¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $187 · now 43¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (74% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $159 · now 48¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (40% of 60)
Specialties
8 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 36¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where gm-gg-gn's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 63%(won 60% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 0% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.