Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 12 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 12¢ · $182K held · ends Nov 3

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$182.1K

Combined PnL

$346.63

Smart Money Entry

11.4¢ → 11.5¢

+1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$169.4K

Total Shares1,454,455

Combined PnL+$539.62

No6 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares14,237

Combined PnL-$192.98

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yes	$53.0K	$53.0K	+$0	43% 561-738 (1299)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Yesavg 13.7¢	$41.0K	$36.0K	$-6.5K	— 7-3 (10)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$26.1K	$30.1K	+$3.9K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$19.6K	$25.0K	+$5.4K	46% 271-319 (590)
The-JokerCTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$11.9K	$12.0K	-$415.4	68% 1507-701 (2208)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 90¢	$2.1K	$5.0K	-$37.42	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
AB abc51001	Noavg 90¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$79.21	61% 52-33 (85)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$5.0K	$3.8K	$-1.2K	38% 20-32 (52)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$7.2K	$3.6K	-$193.52	36% 190-333 (523)
FB fbetCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$126.54	57% 21-16 (37)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$271.91	58% 182-132 (314)
LI lissartter	Noavg 90.8¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$50.73	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 91¢	$915	$890	-$25	97% 2582-68 (2650)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$658.96	$631.5	-$27.46	39% 196-304 (500)
GM gm-gg-gnCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$596.5	$511.29	-$106.51	— 7-4 (11)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 89¢	$178	$178	-$1	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 87¢	$21.75	$22.25	+$0.38	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$20.36	$16.29	-$4.75	50% 970-988 (1958)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$52,957

Value

$53.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

0x498d2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$41,000

Value

$36.0K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

—

7-3 (10)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,131.61

Value

$30.1K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$19,560.84

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

The-JokerCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,915.43

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$415.4

Record

68%

1507-701 (2208)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,068.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$37.42

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

abc51001

Invested

$4,673.34

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$79.21

Record

61%

52-33 (85)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,003.19

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,164.88

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$193.52

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

fbetCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,687

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$126.54

Record

57%

21-16 (37)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,356.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$271.91

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

lissartter

Invested

$2,175.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$50.73

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

BunCaCham

Invested

$915

Value

$890

PnL

-$25

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$658.96

Value

$631.5

PnL

-$27.46

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

gm-gg-gnCTR

Yes

Invested

$596.5

Value

$511.29

PnL

-$106.51

Record

—

7-4 (11)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$178

Value

$178

PnL

-$1

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.36

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$4.75

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

96h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.9%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$672.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

772.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.