Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 21 of 55 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

21 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 49¢ · $238K held · ends Nov 4

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$237.7K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 48.5¢

-19% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 55 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No21 traders

Total Value$103.1K

Total Shares212,746

Combined PnL$-23.5K

Yes34 traders

Total Value$134.6K

Total Shares263,250

Combined PnL+$29.6K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 73% · 15

Diverging

ctrYes 58% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 68% · 22

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 38

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123CTR	Noavg 64.5¢	$51.4K	$38.6K	$-12.8K	39% 196-304 (500)
FL flawfenceCTR	Noavg 50.3¢	$25.7K	$24.8K	-$942.07	46% 271-319 (590)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 51.9¢	$17.8K	$17.7K	-$128.26	58% 705-521 (1226)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 42.5¢	$14.9K	$16.4K	+$1.5K	69% 987-450 (1437)
RA Railcool	Yesavg 27¢	$8.1K	$15.3K	+$7.4K	51% 86-81 (167)
SU supersmard	Yesavg 29.1¢	$6.0K	$10.5K	+$4.6K	39% 46-71 (117)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 71.7¢	$15.1K	$10.2K	$-4.9K	47% 474-534 (1008)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 29.8¢	$6.0K	$10.2K	+$4.3K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
PI pieped	Yesavg 47.7¢	$10.6K	$10.2K	-$399.84	42% 71-100 (171)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 30¢	$4.6K	$8.0K	+$3.3K	61% 203-132 (335)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Noavg 62¢	$9.6K	$7.5K	$-2.1K	53% 915-808 (1723)
LiquidatedDegen	Yesavg 38.3¢	$4.9K	$6.5K	+$1.7K	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 57.2¢	$7.1K	$6.0K	$-1.1K	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Yesavg 52¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$55.34	53% 85-75 (160)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Yesavg 29¢	$2.9K	$5.1K	+$2.2K	— 16-3 (19)
Valen9	Yesavg 38¢	$3.8K	$5.1K	+$1.3K	60% 406-274 (680)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 44.9¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$600.34	69% 804-359 (1163)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Noavg 62¢	$6.2K	$4.8K	$-1.3K	25% 185-564 (749)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 42.3¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$825.02	36% 190-333 (523)
IC ic4creamCTR	Noavg 49¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$38.03	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Yesavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$168	62% 45-28 (73)
Ryxon21CTR	Noavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$25.03	71% 318-130 (448)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 29.2¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$827.26	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
BR brteCTR	Noavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$14.8	— 10-6 (16)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 37¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$399.08	63% 159-95 (254)

wan123CTR

Invested

$51,361.99

Value

$38.6K

PnL

$-12.8K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

flawfenceCTR

Invested

$25,740.6

Value

$24.8K

PnL

-$942.07

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$17,789.65

Value

$17.7K

PnL

-$128.26

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$14,919.64

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Railcool

Yes

Invested

$8,100

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$7.4K

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

supersmard

Yes

Invested

$5,980.66

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$15,118.55

Value

$10.2K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$5,968.84

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$10,599.84

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$399.84

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$4,649.12

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Invested

$9,637.08

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

LiquidatedDegen

Yes

Invested

$4,893.87

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$7,105.53

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Yes

Invested

$5,777.1

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$55.34

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680

Yes

Invested

$2,900

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

Valen9

Yes

Invested

$3,799.99

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$4,641.11

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$600.34

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

rebotsliafCTR

Invested

$6,199.36

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$3,809.98

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$825.02

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

ic4creamCTR

Invested

$3,726.45

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$38.03

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

Loyalty-Crash

Yes

Invested

$2,304

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$168

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

Ryxon21CTR

Invested

$2,399.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$25.03

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$1,082.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$827.26

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

brteCTR

Invested

$1,469.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.8

Record

—

10-6 (16)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$1,018.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$399.08

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

21 of 55 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)21 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 15

Aligned

sharpYes 73% · 15

Diverging

ctrYes 58% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 68% · 22

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 38

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.5%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$98.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

198.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.