Consensus PnL $4.6K · win rate 59% (8685–5956, n=14641) · PM monthly #91 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.6K
Record
8685W / 5956L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 14641 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1229
Source
PM monthly #91
Record (90 d)
3249/6553 · 50%
Trades
74,711
Markets
26,565
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 28 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD?No $96 · now 89¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (89% of 18)
- Will BNG win exactly 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?No $67 · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on November 3?No $48 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will FMLN win the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?No $47 · now 98¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?No $38 · now 89¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 25%-30%?No $35 · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Secretary of State election?No $31 · now 53¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
- Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of January 2027?No $29 · now 97¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
4,306 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 40¢- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 33% of 21 · avg entry 31¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 31% of 1051 at an average 34¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 1% of 2554)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 37% of 91)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 62% of 190)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 96% of 1471)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.