Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 82¢ · $743 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$743.23
$49.3
88.9¢ → 82.3¢
-7% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.5¢ | $1.0K | $400.01 | -$19.15 | 14% 503-3033 (3536) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $27.45 | $78.82 | -$8.84 | 53% 23002-20232 (43234) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $50.11 | $53.81 | +$8.5 | 41% 6347-9311 (15658) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 85¢ | $668.95 | $53.28 | +$24.35 | 35% 18692-34699 (53391) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 87.6¢ | $149.77 | $51.07 | +$48.18 | 49% 8939-9446 (18385) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $37.88 | $35.84 | -$2.04 | 31% 3534-7906 (11440) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $19.34 | $20.38 | +$1.05 | 44% 6563-8231 (14794) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $16.06 | $15.23 | -$0.82 | 73% 12946-4868 (17814) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $57.43 | $15 | -$6.68 | 18% 4414-20716 (25130) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $11.67 | $10.53 | +$4.73 | 36% 2025-3637 (5662) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $5.7 | $6.33 | +$0.16 | 53% 8400-7487 (15887) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $3.07 | $2.91 | -$0.16 | 40% 300-442 (742) |
IstarothInvested
$1,024.29
Value
$400.01
PnL
-$19.15
Record
14%
503-3033 (3536)
Invested
$27.45
Value
$78.82
PnL
-$8.84
Record
53%
23002-20232 (43234)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$50.11
Value
$53.81
PnL
+$8.5
Record
41%
6347-9311 (15658)
Invested
$668.95
Value
$53.28
PnL
+$24.35
Record
35%
18692-34699 (53391)
Invested
$149.77
Value
$51.07
PnL
+$48.18
Record
49%
8939-9446 (18385)
Invested
$37.88
Value
$35.84
PnL
-$2.04
Record
31%
3534-7906 (11440)
Invested
$19.34
Value
$20.38
PnL
+$1.05
Record
44%
6563-8231 (14794)
Invested
$16.06
Value
$15.23
PnL
-$0.82
Record
73%
12946-4868 (17814)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$57.43
Value
$15
PnL
-$6.68
Record
18%
4414-20716 (25130)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$4.73
Record
36%
2025-3637 (5662)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
8400-7487 (15887)
Invested
$3.07
Value
$2.91
PnL
-$0.16
Record
40%
300-442 (742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.