Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 82% (9–2, n=11) · was PM monthly #863 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.8K
Record
9W / 2L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#394
Source
PM monthly #863
Trades
11
Markets
19
Volume
$402.9K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $42K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $16K · now 70¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Yes $449 · now 2¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ivantoney's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 100% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.