Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

140 of 161 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (87%) · Yes at 95¢ · $5.2M held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

161

Yes 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2M

Combined PnL

$82.7K

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 94.5¢

+4% since entry · 139 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

140 of 161 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes140 traders

Total Value$4.9M

Total Shares5,192,277

Combined PnL+$173.5K

No21 traders

Total Value$263.3K

Total Shares4,861,815

Combined PnL$-90.9K

Yes — 87%No — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

140 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 81% · 48

Aligned

sharpYes 97% · 98

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 52% · 31

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 95% · 63

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 85% · 118

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 94¢	$1000.0K	$945.0K	+$5.0K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
BU burrito338	Yesavg 91.5¢	$735.8K	$763.6K	+$23.8K	92% 88-8 (96)
arjennnnn	Yesavg 93.3¢	$403.1K	$410.7K	+$5.5K	70% 820-355 (1175)
PL plumbis	Yesavg 92.9¢	$323.8K	$299.8K	+$4.8K	57% 51-39 (90)
scottilicious	Yesavg 83.7¢	$254.5K	$284.4K	+$29.9K	82% 945-201 (1146)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Yesavg 90.7¢	$222.1K	$232.7K	+$9.4K	— 16-3 (19)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Noavg 6.8¢	$250.5K	$202.3K	$-48.2K	43% 561-738 (1299)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 94.1¢	$156.8K	$157.2K	+$391.53	76% 317-102 (419)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Yesavg 95¢	$114.0K	$114.0K	-$603.98	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
GA gaven-willwin	Yesavg 93¢	$100.0K	$94.5K	+$1.5K	68% 19-9 (28)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Yesavg 88.3¢	$83.9K	$89.8K	+$5.8K	85% 605-108 (713)
HI hideo	Yesavg 84.4¢	$77.2K	$86.9K	+$9.3K	76% 253-81 (334)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 91.9¢	$75.0K	$70.9K	+$2.0K	63% 353-204 (557)
VI vincentchase11	Yesavg 93¢	$68.4K	$69.9K	+$1.1K	58% 134-98 (232)
sciuboi	Yesavg 92¢	$64.2K	$66.3K	+$1.7K	39% 201-319 (520)
ComingBack	Yesavg 94.3¢	$61.2K	$61.6K	+$426.59	61% 3965-2495 (6460)
JSG3	Yesavg 93.7¢	$56.2K	$57.0K	+$500.04	58% 14-10 (24)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752c	Yesavg 80.1¢	$47.7K	$56.2K	+$8.4K	55% 555-461 (1016)
AF aff3	Yesavg 88.3¢	$50.2K	$54.0K	+$3.5K	80% 171-44 (215)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 95¢	$51.4K	$51.4K	-$270.5	78% 341-99 (440)
Valen9	Yesavg 86.5¢	$44.4K	$47.4K	+$3.0K	60% 406-274 (680)
HO HongKongMenace	Yesavg 88¢	$43.4K	$46.9K	+$3.2K	82% 47-10 (57)
BE BearKingdom	Yesavg 78.8¢	$4.3K	$44.9K	+$9.2K	— 1-1 (2)
IV ivantoney	Yesavg 94¢	$41.8K	$42.3K	+$222.5	— 8-3 (11)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 93.1¢	$40.8K	$40.9K	+$101.28	50% 5949-6040 (11989)