Consensus PnL -$40K · win rate 10% (5–46, n=51) · hand-picked wallet · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-39.7K
Record
5W / 46L
Win Rate
10.0%
of 51 settled
Batting Avg
52.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2254
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
19,315
Markets
164
Volume
$5.0M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $12 · now 0¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (84% of 19)
Specialties
65 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 69¢- Elections
+29 pts
side won 97% of 34 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +17%
- Geopolitics
+26 pts
side won 94% of 16 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 71% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 78% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 83% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 66%(won 100% of 43)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.