Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 16 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (84%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 84%

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

$-24.8K

Smart Money Entry

16.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares24,597

Combined PnL+$123.12

Yes16 traders

Total Value$89.02

Total Shares178,035

Combined PnL$-24.9K

No — 16%Yes — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

271 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

84% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
03 033033033	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.8K	$15.8K	+$7.89	98% 529-9 (538)
WA wan123	Noavg 58.7¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$109.96	39% 196-304 (500)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 99¢	$549.45	$554.72	+$5.27	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$12.9K	$38.37	$-12.8K	46% 271-319 (590)
JO jocpoliticCTR	Yesavg 14.1¢	$3.2K	$11.93	$-3.1K	37% 55-93 (148)
debasedCTR<$100	Yes	$11.38	$11.38	-$494.45	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$336.35	$8	-$328.35	35% 35-64 (99)
Jellow2CTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$3.2K	$6.89	$-3.2K	64% 299-169 (468)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$2.1K	$4.32	$-2.1K	69% 987-450 (1437)
BiDiFakePollsCTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$620.93	$1.71	-$619.22	58% 182-132 (314)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 17.8¢	$387.79	$1.67	$-1.1K	53% 906-789 (1695)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$1.49	$1.49	-$64.88	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 33.1¢	$480.3	$1.11	-$479.19	54% 344-290 (634)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$433.99	$1	-$432.99	36% 397-691 (1088)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$236.45	$0.71	-$196.61	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.5	$0.17	-$7.33	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0	$0.16	+$0.16	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0	$0.09	+$0.09	39% 965-1508 (2473)
Kickstand7CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$2.12	$0.01	-$2.11	61% 496-318 (814)

033033033

Invested

$15,760.39

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$7.89

Record

98%

529-9 (538)

wan123

Invested

$8,166.4

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$109.96

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

cocococococo

Invested

$549.45

Value

$554.72

PnL

+$5.27

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,862.57

Value

$38.37

PnL

$-12.8K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

jocpoliticCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,157.89

Value

$11.93

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

37%

55-93 (148)

debasedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.38

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$494.45

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.35

Value

PnL

-$328.35

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

Jellow2CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,195.32

Value

$6.89

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

64%

299-169 (468)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,080.99

Value

$4.32

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

BiDiFakePollsCTR

Yes

Invested

$620.93

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$619.22

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$387.79

Value

$1.67

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.49

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$64.88

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$480.3

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$479.19

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$433.99

Value

PnL

-$432.99

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.45

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$196.61

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.33

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

Kickstand7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.11

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

271 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

84% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.