Consensus PnL $74K · win rate 60% (487–325, n=812) · PM monthly #556 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$73.6K
Record
487W / 325L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 812 settled
Batting Avg
47.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1155
Source
PM monthly #556 + pinned
Trades
22,281
Markets
1,562
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Moise KouameAlejandro Davidovich Fokina $4.1K · now 73¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (17% of 6)
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.2K · now 60¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
Specialties
896 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 63¢- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 99% of 94 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +33%
- Tennis
+29 pts
side won 93% of 681 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +27%
- NBA
+34 pts
side won 95% of 56 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 68% of 37)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 81% of 178)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 95% of 343)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 98% of 338)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.