Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$3.2K
$4.02
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Yesavg 59.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$21.79 | 57% 888-657 (1545) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 41.3¢ | $591.16 | $573.14 | -$18.01 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $38.95 | $38.48 | +$0.48 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $19.78 | $18.4 | -$0.23 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $5.87 | $5.87 | -$0 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 us391CTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $0.69 | $0.69 | +$0.01 | 51% 1712-1675 (3387) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$21.79
Record
57%
888-657 (1545)
Invested
$591.16
Value
$573.14
PnL
-$18.01
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$38.95
Value
$38.48
PnL
+$0.48
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.87
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
us391CTR<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
1712-1675 (3387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.