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D2
Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 54% (40–34, n=74) · was PM monthly #852 · holds 3 consensus positions
0xd239b47d...683b4ac2Polymarket
🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$14.2K
Record
40W / 34L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 74 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1537
Source
PM monthly #852
Trades
4
Markets
91
Volume
$183.8K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $2.9K · now 34¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Over)
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over $2.0K · now 81¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Under)
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Over $1.9K · now 66¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (69% of 14)
Specialties
41 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+50 pts
side won 100% of 41 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 51%(won 100% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 100% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.