Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 56¢ · $401K held · ends Nov 1

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$401.0K

Combined PnL

-$756.48

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 28 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$255.6K

Total Shares469,078

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Under20 traders

Total Value$135.3K

Total Shares297,288

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 74% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA raybanman	Overavg 53.7¢	$234.4K	$237.9K	+$3.5K	43% 16-21 (37)
JS JsramCTR	Underavg 49¢	$45.0K	$41.8K	$-3.2K	55% 133-110 (243)
BU BunCaChamCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$23.0K	$22.1K	-$909.05	97% 2582-68 (2650)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 45¢	$15.6K	$15.8K	+$176.38	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
AnjunCTR	Underavg 45¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$111.11	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$10.1K	$9.8K	-$213.36	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$135.19	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$93.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$228.34
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 47¢	$7.0K	$6.8K	-$225	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
CH chizidahu	Overavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$350.72	41% 357-508 (865)
HA hang808CTR	Underavg 44¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$60	41% 151-220 (371)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 46¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$35.98	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 47¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$153.46	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$50.14	49% 258-268 (526)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 55¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	-$40	32% 742-1577 (2319)
us391	Overavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	-$33.32	51% 1712-1675 (3387)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$27.56	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$81.76
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$700.05	$754.25	+$54.2
MA Mastermoney	Overavg 51¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	-$27.45	47% 221-247 (468)
KI kip3366CTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$87.4	46% 45-52 (97)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 44.7¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$44.5	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$18.38	83% 3802-802 (4604)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$954.44	-$94.4	53% 1155-1007 (2162)
MA Marios15t	Overavg 55¢	$650	$644.09	-$5.91	49% 95-100 (195)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 51¢	$596.7	$637.65	+$40.95	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 45.1¢	$383.58	$369.83	-$13.75	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$310.53	$313.95	+$3.42	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

raybanman

Over

Invested

$234,366.12

Value

$237.9K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

JsramCTR

Under

Invested

$44,984.29

Value

$41.8K

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

55%

133-110 (243)

BunCaChamCTR

Under

Invested

$22,966.5

Value

$22.1K

PnL

-$909.05

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$15,597.6

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$176.38

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

AnjunCTR

Under

Invested

$9,999.9

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$111.11

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$10,053.39

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$213.36

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,753.13

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$135.19

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$4,184.9945.5¢-$93.15

Over$2,568.1451¢+$228.34

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$7,050

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$225

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

chizidahu

Over

Invested

$5,110.55

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$350.72

Record

41%

357-508 (865)

hang808CTR

Under

Invested

$5,280

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$60

Record

41%

151-220 (371)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$5,112.73

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$35.98

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$4,981.27

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$153.46

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$4,613.26

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$50.14

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$4,399.99

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$40

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

us391

Over

Invested

$3,399.49

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$33.32

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,262.02

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$27.56

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Both legs:

Under$2,561.9747¢-$81.76

Over$700.0550.6¢+$54.2

Mastermoney

Over

Invested

$2,800

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$27.45

Record

47%

221-247 (468)

kip3366CTR

Under

Invested

$2,923.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$87.4

Record

46%

45-52 (97)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$2,549

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$44.5

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Under

Invested

$1,654.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$18.38

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,048.84

Value

$954.44

PnL

-$94.4

Record

53%

1155-1007 (2162)

Marios15t

Over

Invested

$650

Value

$644.09

PnL

-$5.91

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$596.7

Value

$637.65

PnL

+$40.95

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$383.58

Value

$369.83

PnL

-$13.75

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$310.53

Value

$313.95

PnL

+$3.42

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 28 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 74% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.