Consensus PnL -$1.0M · win rate 51% (898–871, n=1769) · was PM monthly #313 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.0M
Record
898W / 871L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1769 settled
Batting Avg
29.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1681
Source
PM monthly #313
Trades
1,026
Markets
1,836
Volume
$19.1M
Specialties
1,276 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 56¢- College Football
+34 pts
side won 94% of 31 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +33%
- NFL
+33 pts
side won 92% of 39 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +35%
- Tennis
+20 pts
side won 76% of 486 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +22%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 26% of 100)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 67% of 250)
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 78% of 732)
- 70¢ and up: 15%(won 88% of 194)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.