Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 50% (947–940, n=1887) · was PM monthly #979 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$48.7K
Record
947W / 940L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 1887 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1854
Source
PM monthly #979
Record (90 d)
486/911 · 53%
Trades
2,249
Markets
1,996
Volume
$5.6M
Specialties
1,770 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 51¢- MMA
+42 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +44%
- NBA
+12 pts
side won 65% of 43 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 50% of 1483 at an average 51¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 19% of 103)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 41% of 650)
- 50–70¢: 53%(won 58% of 932)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 84% of 85)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.